11 Thoughts: Betis' stumbles, NBA/UCL playoffs and other Liga MX observations
What a week!
There’s really no need for an intro, let’s just get right to it.
11 Thoughts
1. Giovani Lo Celso will remain with Real Betis. His season on loan has been one of los verdiblancos’ best decisions in the current season. Paying his transfer clause rumored to be around €22 million was a no-brainer. In Lo Celso, Betis have a superstar to build a solid project. With six league games to go, Lo Celso has 15 goals in all competitions played, making him the team’s most important scoring threat throughout the season. He has scored eight times in league play, and it’s widely speculated in Sevilla that if Lo Celso builds on his excellent performances this season, Betis might be able to sell him at a price tag close to €100 million, which for them will be like hitting the jackpot.
2. But the results for Betis haven’t been positive in 2019. Their record in this new year is six wins, seven draws and ten losses in all competitions. If we look at results specifically in March and early April, Betis only have two wins in seven league games played. I think the analysis of Betis’ season took a different turn once they ended playing every three days, as they did in January and February when they were present in Europa League and Copa del Rey competition. Once they could solely focus on league play and have an entire week to prepare matches, the expectation was that the team’s best football was going to show, but it hasn’t been the case. The recent 3-2 loss to Sevilla in El Gran Derbi produced a lot of conclusions to take a look.
3. Aïsa Mandi has been one of Betis regulars since Quique Setién took over in 2017. He’s been fully immersed in this process that saw Betis elevate their level of play in La Liga, climbing the table and becoming a difficult team to beat. In the game against Sevilla, Mandi looked tired and in the second goal Betis conceded, he failed in guarding the ball as an opponent came running at him. Mandi lost the ball, allowing Sevilla to break away in a deadly counter that ended with a Pablo Sarabia goal.
Seconds before Sarabia sent the ball into the net, four Betis defenders were in the box;. The defense was out of place, and it all started with Mandi’s rare mistake. When the season comes to an end, I think one of the issues that will have to be brought up is if Mandi finished the season burnt out. He has played almost all the minutes for Betis this season; he’s at 3,945 right now. And the reason he’s so crucial for Setién, it’s because he provides balance to Betis’ attempt to continuously play with three at the back. However as was seen against Sevilla, Mandi looks drained. Although Setién has maintained the backline of three in order to concede less, Betis actually have a -5 goal differential, setting doubts on whether Setién made the right decision on keeping the backline of three. Perhaps if he had played more often this season with a backline of four, Mandi would have more rest to close out the league?
4. In this stretch of March and early April, Jesé has participated in all the league matches. Against Sevilla, he was in the starting XI and missed two big scoring chances. With his line-up decisions, Setién has made it look like Jesé is the player he feels can contribute more to the attack. More than Loren, who scored Betis’ only goal in the 1-4 defeat to Barça, and more than Sergio León, who hasn’t scored a single league goal in 553 minutes played. Jesé has played 614 league minutes since arriving in January but has only scored once. The numbers don’t add up. Jesé, who didn’t play for PSG in the first half of the season, came to Betis, and Setién expected to see a resurgence from him. Time is running out, and there’s no sight of a resurgence. Seeing Lo Celso’s high goalscoring numbers, it might have made sense to try him more often as a false nine, like Erik ten Hag has done so with Dušan Tadić throughout these Champions League knockout games.
5. It’s true that if Setién had incorporated more often a 4-3-3 with Lo Celso as a false nine, players like Joaquín and Cristian Tello were going to get more looks than Diego Lainez. The former América player hasn’t seen that many league minutes, yet what he achieved in the Europa League game against Rennes, which finished 3-3, was a great example of what Lainez can offer. I feel that Setién didn’t really allowed that positive momentum from that game in France to build and grow. Maybe the tactical shape of the team had something to do with it, maybe, the fact that he wants to maintain the backline of three and still believes that Jesé can find a hot streak to close out the season prevented it. But a lot can happen from now till the end of the season. Because what will happen if Betis doesn’t win a chance to participate in Europa League next season? If Setién remains, what will his plans be in the offseason? What will he look for in the market now that he has Lo Celso? What are his conclusions of Lainez’s performances after seeing him train close to four months?
6. There has been so many takeaways from the last two weeks of Champions League action. There’s many ways of analyzing it and emphasizing what stood out. Certainly, Tottenham and Ajax wins were notorious and, rightfully so, because when the draw happened they weren’t favorites to reach the semifinals. But what’s remarkable is the fashion with which they reached the final four. On Wednesday, Son Heung-min started as Tottenham’s sole striker up top, which is interesting to note because when you think of Son, you don’t think of him as a fantastic goalscoring machine like Robert Lewandowski, Cristiano Ronaldo or Harry Kane. Son builds up space to score, but recently everything he touches in the box has a high percentage of finishing in the back of the net. You can say he’s at that stage of becoming a false nine like Lionel Messi is to Barcelona, however, what makes Messi such a fundamental piece to Barça is his ability to become another midfielder and distribute key passes to Luis Suárez or Coutinho. They’re complete players, who aren’t suited to just stay as a scoring threat upfront. They need to touch the ball to be dangerous, similar to what Tadić has been able to achieve with Ajax. Ten Hag’s front three has been David Neres, Tadić and Hakim Ziyech, which are technical players with a good sense of where to situate with open space ahead of them. They’re great at taking shots on goal whenever there’s space to shoot, as all three have shown in recent games. What I’m trying to emphasize is that ultimately the idea to go with Son or Tadić as the focal point of the team’s attack influences the team’s style, which is rooted in the associative aspect of the team and how sturdy it is. Because as we saw with Manchester City, whose front three included Bernardo Silva, Sergio Agüero and Raheem Sterling, it’s important for the associative display to start at the back. If the defense becomes too brittle and easily distorted as was the case in the first two goals City conceded, then the challenge becomes more complex. Although City’s offense played a stellar game captained by De Bruyne, those early defensive errors cost them a chance to reach the semis. But the idea seen in City, Tottenham, Barça and Ajax had a lot of similarities.
7. Ajax’s Donny van de Beek is a special case to analyze because his presence in the XI has given so much life to the team’s overall display.
I believe that what he provides to Ajax’s style is a possibility to have a player in the starting line-up who’s capable to stretch the field. There’s something about Ajax and their ability to dominate and win zones of the field, with numerical advantage. When they arrive to the final third, their attack looks powerful because they’re able to stretch the field and with that space available, they look for the open man. At times the extra pass feels that it’s too much, but for them it’s a weapon. Many times for Ajax the beneficiary of the extra pass has been van de Beek, who against Juventus always found ways to be open in the box. As this SofaScore heatmap shows, van de Beek appeared in various zones of the field, kind of like a firefighter coming to the areas where the team needed of an extra man. Van de Beek has this ability to play many types of roles during the 90 minutes, and his goal against Juve last Tuesday wasn’t a coincidence because in the first-leg he had one big chance missed. I recommend you follow the semifinal series against Tottenham and pay attention how van de Beek influences Ajax’s game by simply knowing where the team needs him most in the offensive or defensive end.
8. As someone who grew up loving the NBA and football at the same time, I enjoy every time the TNT broadcast team promotes the Uefa Champions League and Uefa Europa League games on B/R Live, as players like James Harden or Russell Westbrook take the court. For me, it’s symbolic. These next weeks, with the NBA Playoffs and the final stages of the Champions League will be memorable. I do firmly believe that there are certain elements in both sports that can be interpreted in similar ways. The degree of speed in both is something that captivates me. How the fastbreak and contraataque have so much in common. How to treat every possession. In basketball you have way more possession opportunities than in football, but in both the same goal remains: to score. Both games are evolving, and as these evolutions take place, the sports become faster, requiring players to think better.
9. What makes Diego Pablo “Cholo” Simeone’s reign as Atleti manager stand out is his power to convince. His message doesn’t fade, but it’s true that questions have to be brought up when the results are in a standstill. It’s a huge a letdown the fact that Atleti couldn’t compete till the very end the chance to play the Champions League final at el Wanda. Although Antoine Griezmann decided to remain with Atleti, this season hasn’t turned out as planned for him and the club. Certainly, the rumors being brought up of him wanting to leave this summer don’t help because it generates doubts on the project’s future. But I find it encouraging how Cholo expressed his beliefs to Rubén Uría in this in depth inteview for Goal.
Simeone is convinced that his way is the way that will get Atleti once again competing for titles. This interview gave me the impression that he’s not totally sold on the idea that Rodri is an undisputed starter, which makes me conclude that if Héctor Herrera arrives to the club this summer, he’ll have an edge over the soon-to-be 23-year-old Spanish midfielder. Maintaining the fighting spirit in the team will be key moving forward, but if more new faces are added to the team, how much time will it take for the team’s character to build? And if Griezmann remains, who will be the players accompanying him in the offense?
10. Before Liga MX’s jornada 15 gets underway, the current Liguilla standings have América versus Monterrey in the quarterfinals, without a doubt a match that will be hard to miss. The state of América, especially after winning the cup, is serene, not so troubled before the big weeks in May. Paul Aguilar is about to play his 400th game in First Division, an impeccable career. His goal is to retire with las águilas and is aware that Jorge Sánchez is ready to take over his place in America’s starting XI. And I think this is important to note when looking at America’s current state with “Piojo” Herrera in charge. Sánchez, as we have seen since last season, is more than ready to take on the role Aguilar will leave behind in the right-back position, so much that Sánchez has had to play as left-back in order for Aguilar to still be present in the XI. This passing of the baton, which will happen in the near future, is already in the works, and it’s happening while the club keeps adding silverware. The current state of América couldn’t be better.
11. On Thursday night, I spotted a video on Twitter, posted by Adrián Esparza Oteo. Esparza Oteo spent a day at Veracruz, and he had the opportunity to observe Sebastián Jurado’s training session. All the news coming from Veracruz has been comical. It’s been an embarrassing season for the club; there’s no reason to support the chance to see it stay in First Division. However, Jurado’s story is worth a study because even though he’s involved in this tragic story, he’s building his own story, and working hard on fulfilling his dreams. Every training session counts, as this video suggests. Only time will tell how far he can go.
